Hurricane
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Various trends may work together to hold the cat markets up for longer than some had feared.
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Panellists at the Insurance Insider ILS conference say forecasts can push capital to “the edges” of the market.
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Researchers expect 15-20 named storms to form in the Atlantic Basin.
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Sources said preparations for a 2024 IPO were halted, but work could resume later this year.
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Inver Re used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to model the impacts of global warming for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall in Florida.
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The National Flood Insurance Programme could face a loss of around $500mn from the hurricane, according to the estimate.
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Hurricane Idalia is still live, but the storm’s track reassured market participants that it will be a relatively minor loss.
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Idalia might add further aggregate erosion to several cat bonds covering various perils over an annual risk period, it stated.
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With Hurricane Idalia’s landfall underway loss estimates are uncertain, but sources noted that the storm’s trajectory shows it taking the best path to impact minimal insured values in Florida.
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The update projections for wind only show a 20% likelihood of losses approaching $11.7bn.
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More than 800,000 houses could be affected by the hurricane’s storm surge.
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If the storm steers clear of Tampa, reinsurers will be well placed for minimal losses, but a retention loss is a further blow for weak Floridians.
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Hurricane Idalia will reach Jacksonville but will have weakened by then
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The Cat-4 storm is likely to weaken as it approaches the California coast.
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There has never been a named storm to form in the eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the season.
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The forecaster is predicting there could be as many as 14 hurricanes in the North Atlantic between June and November.
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast “near-normal" hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year.
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Higher rates and reserve releases connected to Hurricane Ian boosted results.
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The firm’s flood solution will be available to layer on top of existing parametric hurricane wind policies.
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Hurricane Ian’s legacy will undoubtedly lead to some shake-ups in the ILS sector, with ongoing progression outside cat and ESG strategies likely to be a focus.
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The reinsurer emphasised the need for improved secondary peril models including predictive capabilities.
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Frontier Advisors said sentiment continues to be challenged by performance.
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The new loss pick takes into account litigation and inflation costs, as well as claims activity to date.
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Most ILS firms are marking the Ian loss as a $50bn+ event, although there are exceptions.
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The bonds had been heavily marked down initially.
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Hurricane Ian losses at United Insurance Holdings (UPC) Insurance have nearly reached the top of its personal lines reinsurance tower, company executives said on its earnings call.
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The sector’s performance was better overall compared with September 2017.
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FloodSmart Re bonds recovered by a few points in October after initial steep write-downs following Ian.
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For larger top-end ILW triggers, cedants may have to be pragmatic on rolling over capital.
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A special session in December and prohibition of assignments of benefits have been cited on the Florida campaign trail.
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The firm’s capital and risk solutions segment has been growing its reinsurance business this year.
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The analysts said market pricing indicators suggested a hard market was going to set in, requiring increases of 20%-30%.
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The federal flood insurance program’s claims count has stepped up from 25,000 a fortnight ago.
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Major questions confront the industry after Hurricane Ian, but no matter the answers, certain outcomes are inevitable.
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Buyers are more open than ever to different sources of capacity, but the timing of entry will not be on the industry’s terms.
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The state insurance body received reports of 375,293 claims as of 6 October.
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Hurricane Ian could present a challenge for ILS fundraising conversations this autumn if ILS firms do not find more financing solutions to manage trapped capital, according to panellists at Trading Risk New York 2022 last week.
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The cat bond market has a high level of exposure to Florida wind risk.
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The Swiss ILS specialist pointed to potential impacts on Floodsmart, Florida indemnity and index-linked bonds.
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RMS pushed the guidance for the Carolinas component of the Ian loss $120mn higher at the mean level up to $1.94bn, as it updated figures on Saturday in private figures to clients.
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Most of the losses will come from wind damage, while storm surge and inland flooding could account for up to $6.5bn in total.
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Flagship sidecar funds run by Stone Ridge and Amundi Pioneer lost 12% and 5% respectively last week.
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KCC previously issued a $32.5bn number in a private client advisory based on Ian's Tuesday track.
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The modelling firm’s Thursday guidance based on prior hurricanes spanned $20bn-$88bn, compared to $12bn-$83bn the previous day.
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The market needs to improve on contract certainty to manage pricing cycles better, Rettino told Trading Risk New York 2022.
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Florida domestic insurers have around $2.5bn of on-risk cat bonds, with flood and other ILW based deals exposed to the storm.
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The state’s property carriers are closely watching the progress of Hurricane Ian.
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The dangerous storm is now projected to make landfall between Sarasota and Port Charlotte, Florida.
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Cat 4 Hurricane Charley made landfall on Florida’s west coast in 2004, while Tarpon Springs (1921) was the last major storm to hit Tampa.
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Models are now showing a hurricane coming ashore on the west coast of Florida near Fort Myers on Wednesday at 08:00 EDT with winds of 115 mph.
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Danielle doesn’t appear to threaten land, but a second storm is likely forming and could threaten the Caribbean and Florida.
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Tropical storms gain strength when passing over the deep warm current.
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The weather system has arisen early in the season when some insurers are still yet to renew reinsurance.
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The university’s predictions increase to 20 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, for the season that started on Wednesday.
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The broker noted, however, that at this time last year the consensus was also for a slightly above average season which turned out to be the third most active season ever.
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NOAA predicts there is a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
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Researchers forecast 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes between June and November 2022.
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The issuance is seeking named storm cover in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
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The team of researchers predict there will be 19 named storms, of which nine will be hurricanes.
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The study says a more La Niña-like environment has driven the trend.
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