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The loss aggregator said the change indicated initial over-reserving in the wake of the flooding.
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The cat modeller’s estimate follows a $950mn projection from Karen Clark and Company.
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The midpoint for the estimate is around $97mn above the company’s pre-tax cat load, with $75mn resulting from Hurricane Ida.
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Surpassing the $30bn threshold will trigger more occurrence covers, as another painful year looms for aggregate writers.
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Provinzial confirmed its claims had risen above EUR1bn and it now estimates they could reach EUR1.5bn.
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The modeller’s estimate is higher than BMS’s earlier $700mn figure.
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Progressive books $341.9mn in cat losses from Hurricane Ida in August and sees the total rising to $510mn.
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The new figure includes a prediction of between $6bn to $9bn in both public and private insured flood losses in the Atlantic states region after Ida moved inland.
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The insurer’s net monthly cat losses reached $876mn.
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The sharpest decline was with the Catahoula Re 2020-1 Class A deal issued by Louisiana Citizens on which bids dropped 60.3c from 100.3c to 40c.
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