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The loss estimate does not include litigation or claims below the deductible. -
The flooding is now the costliest nat cat event ever in Australia, with insured losses higher than Cyclone Tracy and Sydney Hailstorm in 1999.
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KCC has added a loading for litigation costs to the storm loss estimate for the first time.
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The broker’s global head of catastrophe management Dan Dick said that a realistic view on Ian’s loss suggests it would remain an earnings event for (re)insurers.
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RMS pushed the guidance for the Carolinas component of the Ian loss $120mn higher at the mean level up to $1.94bn, as it updated figures on Saturday in private figures to clients.
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Constraints in rebuilding supplies and contractors, inflation and post-event litigation will be key loss amplification drivers.
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Most of the losses will come from wind damage, while storm surge and inland flooding could account for up to $6.5bn in total.
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The storm, which made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, has now been downgraded to a post-tropical storm.
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In 2022, the NFIP placed reinsurance with 28 private companies - including 13 Lloyd’s syndicates.
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KCC previously issued a $32.5bn number in a private client advisory based on Ian's Tuesday track.
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The National Hurricane Center noted that Ian should weaken rapidly after landfall and transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight.
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The modelling firm’s Thursday guidance based on prior hurricanes spanned $20bn-$88bn, compared to $12bn-$83bn the previous day.
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